Monday, 6 July 2020

Reduce inequalities in taxes by Adrian Sinfield

Reduce inequalities in taxes

Adrian Sinfield

 

Now is the time to significantly reduce the inequalities created and reinforced by taxes. We cannot continue to let spending policies run through the tax system relatively neglected, while the costs of public spending are subject to ever greater scrutiny. Nobody asks ‘where’s the money coming from?’ when tax allowances are raised above inflation.

 

Tax reliefs and subsidies of all types which contribute to reinforcing and even enlarging social and economic inequalities must now be tackled vigorously (Bradshaw, 2019, chapter 9). Today many, particularly the better-off, are advantaged by a variety of tax reliefs hidden and virtually ignored in contrast to the ever greater scrutiny of public spending. Only the costs of some are released, buried away obscurely by HMRC. Their distributional impact is very rarely published. This is not the tax avoidance of the tax gap but legal use of a tax policy gap that governments have deliberately created for specific purposes. The Office for Budget Responsibility recognises these as ‘policy motivated tax expenditures’. The cost of just those ‘that HMRC has identified is large in absolute terms – approaching 8 per cent of GDP – and also by international standards’ (OBR, 2019, p 95) – more than the NHS costs.

 

The largest personal income tax relief is to help build a private pension, currently £19 billion net (after deducting tax collected on pensions in payment). Half goes to the top tenth of income tax payers but only one tenth to the bottom half, despite significant restrictions on relief at higher incomes (Treasury Committee, 2018b: 33, chart 5.1).  Even that does not include all pension tax relief and totally ignores the £16.5 billion National Insurance contribution reliefs omitted from NI Accounts (HMRC, 2019). At least 6 times as big a subsidy supports private pensions as does pension credit for the poorest pensioners.  No wonder that less than 8% of all households own 47% of private pension wealth (ONS, 2015, chapter 6).

 

Wealth must also be taxed more fairly and effectively. In proportion to GDP total private wealth more than doubled over the last 45 years while its taxes ‘remained at around only 2 per cent of GDP’ (Summers in Bradshaw, 2019, p 115). Instead of saying ‘make the rich pay more’, ask ‘who among the rich is not paying their fair share?’  The reason is not so much complex tax avoidance schemes or simple bad behaviour as the political choices stamped into the tax system: taxing similar forms of remuneration differently, and providing many uncapped tax reliefs without checking effectiveness and value for money (Advani and Summers, 2020).

 

Finally, local taxation must be made progressively redistributive and, at the very least, council tax valuation must be brought up to date.

 

Even very small increases in reduction of reliefs and taxation of wealth will provide significant resources to prevent poverty and secure the futures of all children and families across our society (Sinfield, 2020).

 

 

Adrian Sinfield, Professor Emeritus of Social Policy, University of Edinburgh       adrian.sinfield@ed.ac.uk

 

Advani, A. and Summers, A. (2020), How much tax do the rich really pay? New evidence from tax microdata in the UK, CAGE Policy Briefing no. 27, June.

https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/bn27.2020.pdf

Bradshaw, J. ed. (2019) Let’s Talk about Tax, London: CPAG.

HMRC (2019) PEN 6 Cost of Pension Tax and NICs Relief https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/833859/Table_6_Cost_of_Pension_Tax_and_NICs_Relief__2012-13_to_2017-18_.pdf

OBR – Office for Budget Responsibility (2019) Fiscal Risks Report, CP 131, London: TSO.

ONS – Office of National Statistics (2015) Wealth in Great Britain Wave 4: 2012 to 2014, London: ONS.

Sinfield, A. (2020) Prevent poverty better, Submission to the Commission on Work, Pensions and Equality, Labour Party Forum, June.



Thursday, 2 April 2020


UNIVERSITY OF YORK
Social Policy Research Unit

Jonathan Bradshaw and Antonia Keung

HELP FOR POOR FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN IN THE COVID-19 CRISIS: FURTHER ANALYSIS

The package of measures that the Government has announced though welcome has as yet done nothing for families with children. Children have been sent home from school and although vouchers have been promised for free school meals children this will only help about 20% of children and none of those under 8 who were getting universal free school meals (differences in Scotland). We have assessed the impact on child poverty using an increase in child benefits of £10 per child per week compared with the £20 increase that has been announced for universal credit (UC) and working tax credit (WTC). Child benefits would reduce child poverty by 5 percentage points compared with only 1 percentage point for the £20 on UC/WTC. Further because the £20 on UC/WTC does not cover those on legacy benefits (JSA/ESA) they have an incentive to apply for UC putting extra pressure on a system that is failing to cope with 500,000 new claims.

What other measures could help families with children? The fertile mind of Gordon Brown, the architect of Labours child poverty strategy, has suggested that we try the following options. We show the impact cumulatively in the Tables below.

Table 1: Accept the £20 uplift to UC/WTC and increase child benefit by £5 per child a week
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-ups
21.8%
29.5%
After top-ups
17.5%
25.5%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)

Table 2: Extend the £20 uplift to those still on JSA/ESA and increase child benefit by £5 per week
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-up
21.8%
29.5%
After top-up
17.2%
25.3%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)

Table 3: Accept the £20 uplift to UC/WTC and increase child benefit by £5 per child a week and award £10 extra per week to each dependent child in a family receiving UC (no two child- limit applied – very few third and subsequent children born after April 2017 in 2017/18 HBAI. Anyway it should be abolished.)

Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-ups
21.8%
29.5%
After top-ups
17.5%
25.4%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)


Table 4: Extend the £20 uplift to those still on JSA/ESA and increase child benefit by £5 per week and award £10 extra per week to each dependent child in a family receiving UC.
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-up
21.8%
29.5%
After top-up
17.1%
25.1%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)


Table 5: Accept the £20 uplift to UC/WTC and increase child benefit by £5 per child a week and award £10 extra per week to each dependent child in a family receiving UC or a family receiving CTC.
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-ups
21.8%
29.5%
After top-ups
9.8%
15.4%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)

Table 6: Extend the £20 uplift to those still on JSA/ESA and increase child benefit by £5 per week and award £10 extra per week to each dependent child in a family receiving UC or CTC.
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-up
21.8%
29.5%
After top-up
9.5%
15.1%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)


Table 7: Accept the £20 uplift to UC/WTC and increase child benefit by £5 per child a week and award £20 extra per week to each dependent child in a family receiving UC
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-ups
21.8%
29.5%
After top-ups
17.4%
25.4%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)

Table 8: Extend the £20 uplift to those still on JSA/ESA and increase child benefit by £5 per week and award £20 extra per week to each dependent child in a family receiving UC.
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-up
21.8%
29.5%
After top-up
17.0%
25.1%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)


Table 9: Accept the £20 uplift to UC/WTC and increase child benefit by £5 per child a week and award £20 extra per week to each dependent child in a family receiving UC or a family receiving CTC.
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-ups
21.8%
29.5%
After top-ups
7.99%
10.94%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)

Table 10: Extend the £20 uplift to those still on JSA/ESA and increase child benefit by £5 per week and award £20 extra per week to each dependent child in a family receiving UC or CTC.
Relative child poverty rates
BHC
AHC
Before top-up
21.8%
29.5%
After top-up
7.95%
10.89%
Total number of children in working age families
13,647,812
Note: without adjusting the median income after top up. (HBAI 2017/18 weighted by GS_NEWCH)


Thursday, 5 March 2020

Fertility


IS THE GOVERNMENT WISE TO TRY TO REDUCE BIRTHS IN THE UK?

Jonathan Bradshaw

The coverage of the Office of National Statistics publication of the latest conception statistics concentrated on the fact that 24% of conceptions ended in abortions in 2018 (it was 48% for the under 20s and 35% for 20 to 24-year-olds). Much less attention was paid to the rapid decline that has been taking place in conceptions, births and the underlying fertility rate. The number of births each year has declined by 82,449 between 2010 and 2018. The birth rate per 1000 women has declined from 63.8 to 57.3 over the same period. The underlying fertility rate, that is the number of babies a woman will have in their child-bearing lives has declined very rapidly indeed from 1.94 in 2010 to 1.70 in 2018. Indeed, if the rate of decline has continued to 2020 we will have already achieved the lowest fertility rate ever recorded.

Total fertility rate England and Wales 2010-2018




It is always risky to claim cause and effect or  to predict future fertility trends. Fertility rates have fluctuated widely since WW11, often for no very obvious reason. The decline in inward migration will be part of the explanation for the decline. Austerity and particularly the huge cuts made in financial support towards  the costs of child rearing will have reduced and delayed conceptions and probably driven up abortions. Becoming of growing importance will be the two-child limit introduced from 2017 that restricts child payments in means-tested benefits to two children. It may also be responsible for some of the increase in abortion.

It is extraordinary that the government is attempting to limit family size at a time when fertility is already collapsing. Many other countries are using financial incentives to try to sustain or raise their fertility rates.

Monday, 28 May 2018

Child poverty gaps still increasing

UNIVERSITY OF YORK
Social Policy Research Unit
 
May 2018
 
UK child poverty gaps still increasing
Jonathan Bradshaw[1] and Antonia Keung[2]
 
Poverty gaps and poverty rates
There has always been a debate in the world of poverty measurement about whether we should be more concerned about poverty rates (the proportion below a poverty threshold) or poverty gaps (how far people in poverty are below the poverty threshold). Is it better for a country to have many children a little way below the poverty threshold or few children below the poverty threshold, but a long way below it?
 
The UK has tended in the past to have comparatively high poverty rates but comparatively low poverty gaps. This has been thanks to a fairly comprehensive but quite low minimum income scheme.  But since the recession our minimum income scheme has been undermined[3] by benefit caps, the two child limit, the bedroom tax, local rent limits, real-terms cuts to benefit levels, the failure to uprate child tax credits and child benefits, the localisation of council tax benefit and sanctions.
 
The most recent Households Below Average Income (HBAI) statistics for 2016-17[4] produced by the DWP show an increase in child poverty rates (after housing costs). However the HBAI series have never included poverty gap data: for households below the poverty line, the average of how far their incomes are from the poverty threshold.
 
Nevertheless poverty gaps are important, as they tell us about likely levels of hardship for those living below the poverty line. Poverty rates may be falling when poverty gaps are rising and vice versa. We have analysed trends in the poverty gaps for families with children from 2007/8 to 2016/17 and the results are presented in Tables 1 and 2 and Figure 1.
 
Poverty gap increasing in the UK
The best measure to focus on is the median poverty gap for all families with children. There has been an increase in the poverty gap, both before and after housing costs. In 2007/8 the median poverty gap before housing costs was £41.60 per week, but by 2016/17 it had increased to £57.40 per week. After housing costs the increase was from £50.40 per week in 2007/8 to £63.00 per week in 2016/17.
 
In other words, not only is the number of children in poverty increasing but families with children are now living, on average, further below the poverty line than they did ten years ago. The sharpest increases in the poverty line have occurred since around 2012, when the first wave of cuts to family benefits (such as the benefit cap and reductions in support with housing costs) started to take effect.
 

 
Table 1: Poverty gaps average £ per week before housing costs

Poverty gap (£ per week)
 
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
Lone parent       
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mean (SD)
47.00 (42.56)
48.17 (48.67)
48.32 (48.48)
47.56 (50.60)
55.05 (48.25)
63.32 (59.55)
53.87 (54.56)
61.96 (61.28)
66.25 (64.09)
67.57 (63.01)
95% CI for the mean
46.92-47.08
48.07-48.26
48.22-48.43
47.44-47.68
54.93-55.16
63.18-63.46
53.73-54.00
61.82-62.10
66.11-66.38
67.44-67.71
Median
35.60
32.60
32.00
31.80
41.20
45.00
33.80
37.80
45.60
50.40
Couple with children
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mean (SD)
66.34 (59.68)
70.30 (63.19)
70.12 (64.65)
68.22 (62.88)
63.59 (60.44)
74.68 (71.49)
68.89 (63.07)
75.39 (68.55)
72.47 (69.57)
84.03 (77.47)
95% CI for the mean
66.25-66.42
70.21-70.39
70.03-70.22
68.12-68.31
63.50-63.69
74.57-74.79
68.79-68.99
75.29-75.49
72.37-72.57
83.92-84.14
Median
47.60
48.60
49.00
48.80
45.20
51.00
50.80
54.80
51.60
60.40
All families with children
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mean (SD)
59.04 (54.67)
62.18 (59.25)
63.21 (60.85)
62.08 (60.24)
61.07 (57.24)
71.33 (68.38)
64.92 (61.29)
71.25 (66.68)
70.45 (67.90)
78.87 (73.64)
95% CI for the mean
58.98-59.11
62.11-62.25
63.14-63.29
62.00-62.16
60.99-61.14
71.24-71.42
64.84-65.00
71.17-71.33
70.36-70.53
78.78-78.96
Median
41.60
42.60
44.00
42.80
44.20
49.00
46.80
49.80
50.60
57.40
Children
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total number of children (thousands)
12,976
12,965
13,150
13,207
13,267
13,350
13,329
13,480
13,541
13,660
% in poverty
22.5
21.9
19.8
17.6
17.6
17.3
17.0
18.8
19.6
19.5
Source: Own analysis of HBAI
 
Table 2: Poverty gaps average £ per week after housing costs
 
Poverty gap (£ per week)
 
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
Lone parent
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mean (SD)
57.66 (49.57)
59.83 (61.61)
59.95 (61.36)
59.31 (57.62)
60.62 (57.41)
66.90 (67.50)
63.02 (65.57)
75.69 (69.65)
78.04 (72.42)
77.84 (71.29)
95% CI for the mean
57.58-57.73
59.74-59.93
59.85-60.05
59.21-59.41
60.52-60.72
66.79-67.02
62.90-63.13
75.57-75.80
77.93-78.16
77.72-77.95
Median
46.40
43.00
44.20
41.80
47.00
46.40
46.60
54.40
57.80
59.00
Couple with children
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mean (SD)
78.01 (84.23)
81.62 (80.61)
78.67 (80.98)
78.10 (74.65)
76.46 (78.29)
80.47 (83.21)
81.55 (75.57)
85.14 (81.50)
90.76 (107.84)
93.98 (96.96)
95% CI for the mean
77.91-78.12
81.52-81.72
78.57-78.77
78.00-78.19
76.36-76.57
80.37-80.58
81.46-81.65
85.04-85.24
90.63-90.90
93.87-94.10
Median
52.40
57.00
57.20
57.80
56.00
55.40
62.60
61.40
63.80
67.00
All families with children
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mean (SD)
70.02 (73.30)
73.29 (74.68)
71.86 (74.99)
71.44 (69.68)
70.78 (71.90)
75.59 (78.20)
75.16 (72.82)
81.80 (77.66)
85.95 (96.19)
88.14 (88.87)
95% CI for the mean
69.95-70.09
73.22-73.37
71.79-71.94
71.36-71.51
70.70-70.85
75.51-75.68
75.09-75.24
81.72-81.88
85.86-86.05
88.05-88.22
Median
50.40
52.00
52.20
50.80
52.00
51.40
55.60
57.40
61.80
63.00
Children
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total number of children (thousands)
12,976
12,965
13,150
13,207
13,267
13,350
13,329
13,480
13,541
13,660
% in poverty
31.4
30.3
29.5
27.3
27.1
27.2
27.8
29.0
29.6
30.3
Source: Own analysis of HBAI
 
Figure 1. Changes in the poverty gap since 2007/8 for families with children before (BHC) and after housing costs (AHC)



 
Source: Own analysis of HBAI