IS THE GOVERNMENT WISE TO TRY TO REDUCE BIRTHS IN THE UK?
Jonathan Bradshaw
The coverage of the Office of National Statistics
publication of the latest conception statistics concentrated on the fact that
24% of conceptions ended in abortions in 2018 (it was 48% for the under 20s and
35% for 20 to 24-year-olds). Much less attention was paid to the rapid decline
that has been taking place in conceptions, births and the underlying fertility
rate. The number of births each year has declined by 82,449 between 2010 and
2018. The birth rate per 1000 women has declined from 63.8 to 57.3 over the
same period. The underlying fertility rate, that is the number of babies a
woman will have in their child-bearing lives has declined very rapidly indeed
from 1.94 in 2010 to 1.70 in 2018. Indeed, if the rate of decline has continued
to 2020 we will have already achieved the lowest fertility rate ever recorded.
Total fertility rate England and Wales 2010-2018
It is always risky to claim cause and effect or to predict future fertility trends. Fertility
rates have fluctuated widely since WW11, often for no very obvious reason. The
decline in inward migration will be part of the explanation for the decline.
Austerity and particularly the huge cuts made in financial support towards the costs of child rearing will have reduced
and delayed conceptions and probably driven up abortions. Becoming of growing
importance will be the two-child limit introduced from 2017 that restricts
child payments in means-tested benefits to two children. It may also be
responsible for some of the increase in abortion.
It is extraordinary that the government is attempting to
limit family size at a time when fertility is already collapsing. Many other countries
are using financial incentives to try to sustain or raise their fertility
rates.
