Fertility

IS THE GOVERNMENT WISE TO TRY TO REDUCE BIRTHS IN THE UK?

Jonathan Bradshaw

The coverage of the Office of National Statistics publication of the latest conception statistics concentrated on the fact that 24% of conceptions ended in abortions in 2018 (it was 48% for the under 20s and 35% for 20 to 24-year-olds). Much less attention was paid to the rapid decline that has been taking place in conceptions, births and the underlying fertility rate. The number of births each year has declined by 82,449 between 2010 and 2018. The birth rate per 1000 women has declined from 63.8 to 57.3 over the same period. The underlying fertility rate, that is the number of babies a woman will have in their child-bearing lives has declined very rapidly indeed from 1.94 in 2010 to 1.70 in 2018. Indeed, if the rate of decline has continued to 2020 we will have already achieved the lowest fertility rate ever recorded.

Total fertility rate England and Wales 2010-2018

It is always risky to claim cause and effect or  to predict future fertility trends. Fertility rates have fluctuated widely since WW11, often for no very obvious reason. The decline in inward migration will be part of the explanation for the decline. Austerity and particularly the huge cuts made in financial support towards  the costs of child rearing will have reduced and delayed conceptions and probably driven up abortions. Becoming of growing importance will be the two-child limit introduced from 2017 that restricts child payments in means-tested benefits to two children. It may also be responsible for some of the increase in abortion.

It is extraordinary that the government is attempting to limit family size at a time when fertility is already collapsing. Many other countries are using financial incentives to try to sustain or raise their fertility rates.