The impact assessment[1]
for UC in 2012 estimated that between 100,000 and 300,000 would enter work and
between 1 million and 2.5 million more hours would be worked as a result of UC.
A PQ[2]
in 2017 reduced the entering work number to 150,000 and made no claim on extra
hours. DWP presented estimates of the impact of UC in reports
published
in 2015 with an update
in 2017. The latter found that that UC claimants were
3 percentage points more likely to be in work after six months than matched
jobseeker’s allowance claimants (56 per cent versus 53 per cent).
The Office for Budget Responsibility concentrated on UC in its
latest Welfare Trends report and
was clearly not convinced enough by this evidence to take it into account. They
concluded “we
have not yet incorporated these (findings) into our forecasts, as it is not yet
clear that the impact found for the simple cases migrated so far will be
replicated for the more complex ones to come or if the resources devoted to the
early cases will be sustained (para 7). They point out that simple cases are
unlikely to be representative of the overall caseload; that operational choices
and resources available per case may not be representative of the policy when
scaled up; and that the generosity of the UC system has been significantly
reduced since the trials, with large cuts to work allowances taking effect in
2016-17. They reproduce with implicit hilarity
the onerous job description for the 13,000 work coaches being recruited for UC at
£24,000 to £26,000 per year, commenting these “stretching roles are modestly
remunerated”. They conclude “that we
will consider the updated estimates that are due to be published in the full UC
business case later this year, but do not expect to make any new forecast
judgements until UC is operating at greater scale across all types of claimant
and for a sufficiently long period for robust evidence of any labour market
effects to emerge.”
So
the jury is still out on whether, what is effectively the sole remaining claim
for Universal Credit, will be realised.
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