UK child poverty gaps increasing

UNIVERSITY OF YORK

Social Policy Research Unit

UK child poverty gaps increasing but small reductions in deprivation

Jonathan Bradshaw and Antonia Keung

Updated 6/12/17                   

There has always been a debate in the world of poverty measurement about whether we should be more concerned about poverty rates (the proportion below a poverty threshold) or poverty gaps (how far people in poverty are below the poverty threshold). Is it better for a country to have many children a little way below the poverty threshold or few children below the poverty threshold, but a long way below it? The UK has tended in the past to have comparatively high poverty rates but comparatively low poverty gaps. This has been thanks to a fairly comprehensive but quite low minimum income scheme.  But since the recession our minimum income scheme has been undermined by benefits caps, the two child limit, the bedroom tax, local rent limits, real cuts, the failure to uprate child tax credits and child benefits, the localisation of council tax benefit and sanctions.

 The most recent HBAI statistics for 2015-16 produced by the DWP show an increase in child poverty rates, the first for a decade. The HBAI series have never included poverty gap data. There are some good reasons for this: the calculation is rather arcane (for households below the poverty threshold, the average of how far their incomes are from the poverty threshold); the statistic is subject to outliers (including negative incomes); and quite large sampling errors, even in a survey as large as the Family Resources Survey.

 Nevertheless they are worth having a look at – especially for trend data over time. Poverty rates may be falling when poverty gaps are rising and vice versa. For the Child Poverty Action Group we have analysed trends in the poverty gaps for families with children from 2007/8 to 2015/16 and the results are presented in tables 1 and 2 and figure 1.

It is probably safest to focus on the median poverty gap and all families with children. There has been an increase in the poverty gap, both before and after housing costs. In 2007/8 the median poverty gap before housing costs was £41.60 per week by 2015/16 it had increased to £50.60 per week.  After housing costs the increase was from £50.40 per week in 2007/8 to £61.80 per week in 2015/16. Over the same period the child poverty rates had fallen both before and after housing costs.

 Table 1: Poverty gaps average £ per week BHC

	£ per week
	2007/8	2008/9	2009/10	2010/11	2011/12	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16
Lone parent
Mean (SD)	47.00 (42.56)	48.17 (48.67)	48.32 (48.48)	47.56 (50.60)	55.05 (48.25)	63.32 (59.55)	53.87 (54.56)	61.96 (61.28)	66.25 (64.09)
95% CI for the mean	46.92-47.08	48.07-48.26	48.22-48.43	47.44-47.68	54.93-55.16	63.18-63.46	53.73-54.00	61.82-62.10	66.11-66.38
Median	35.60	32.60	32.00	31.80	41.20	45.00	33.80	37.80	45.60
Couple with children
Mean (SD)	66.34 (59.68)	70.30 (63.19)	70.12 (64.65)	68.22 (62.88)	63.59 (60.44)	74.68 (71.49)	68.89 (63.07)	75.39 (68.55)	72.47 (69.57)
95% CI for the mean	66.25-66.42	70.21-70.39	70.03-70.22	68.12-68.31	63.50-63.69	74.57-74.79	68.79-68.99	75.29-75.49	72.37-72.57
Median	47.60	48.60	49.00	48.80	45.20	51.00	50.80	54.80	51.60
All families with children
Mean (SD)	59.04 (54.67)	62.18 (59.25)	63.21 (60.85)	62.08 (60.24)	61.07 (57.24)	71.33 (68.38)	64.92 (61.29)	71.25 (66.68)	70.45 (67.90)
95% CI for the mean	58.98-59.11	62.11-62.25	63.14-63.29	62.00-62.16	60.99-61.14	71.24-71.42	64.84-65.00	71.17-71.33	70.36-70.53
Median	41.60	42.60	44.00	42.80	44.20	49.00	46.80	49.80	50.60
Total no. of children	12,975,932	12,965,385	13,150,415	13,206,669	13,266,967	13,349,935	13,329,444	13,480,133	13,541,132
% children in poverty	22.5	21.9	19.8	17.6	17.6	17.3	17.0	18.8	19.6

Source: Own analysis of HBAI

Table 2: Poverty gaps average £ per week AHC

	£ per week
	2007/8	2008/9	2009/10	2010/11	2011/12	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16
Lone parent
Mean (SD)	57.66 (49.57)	59.83 (61.61)	59.95 (61.36)	59.31 (57.62)	60.62 (57.41)	66.90 (67.50)	63.02 (65.57)	75.69 (69.65)	78.04 (72.42)
95% CI for the mean	57.58-57.73	59.74-59.93	59.85-60.05	59.21-59.41	60.52-60.72	66.79-67.02	62.90-63.13	75.57-75.80	77.93-78.16
Median	46.40	43.00	44.20	41.80	47.00	46.40	46.60	54.40	57.80
Couple with children
Mean (SD)	78.01 (84.23)	81.62 (80.61)	78.67 (80.98)	78.10 (74.65)	76.46 (78.29)	80.47 (83.21)	81.55 (75.57)	85.14 (81.50)	90.76 (107.84)
95% CI for the mean	77.91-78.12	81.52-81.72	78.57-78.77	78.00-78.19	76.36-76.57	80.37-80.58	81.46-81.65	85.04-85.24	90.63-90.90
Median	52.40	57.00	57.20	57.80	56.00	55.40	62.60	61.40	63.80
All families with children
Mean (SD)	70.02 (73.30)	73.29 (74.68)	71.86 (74.99)	71.44 (69.68)	70.78 (71.90)	75.59 (78.20)	75.16 (72.82)	81.80 (77.66)	85.95 (96.19)
95% CI for the mean	69.95-70.09	73.22-73.37	71.79-71.94	71.36-71.51	70.70-70.85	75.51-75.68	75.09-75.24	81.72-81.88	85.86-86.05
Median	50.40	52.00	52.20	50.80	52.00	51.40	55.60	57.40	61.80
Total no. of children	12,975,932	12,965,385	13,150,415	13,206,669	13,266,967	13,349,935	13,329,444	13,480,133	13,541,132
% children in poverty	31.4	30.3	29.5	27.3	27.1	27.2	27.8	29.0	29.6

Source: Own analysis of HBAI

Tables 3 shows trends in child deprivation and Table 4 trends in deprivation for adults in families with children. Most of the child indicators show slight reductions in deprivation since 2007/8 – the exception is a holiday away from home. For adults lack of a holiday away from home and contents insurance have increased since 2007/8.

Table 3            Percentage of children lacking necessities in 2007/8 to 2015/16 (weighted by GS_NEWCH)

Item	2007/8	2008/9	2009/10	2010/11	2011/12	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16
Outdoor space or facilities nearby where they can play safely	14.8	13.1	11.2	9.5	8.7	9.6	7.4	7.5	7.1
Enough bedrooms for every child over 10 of different sex to have his or her own bedroom	16.9	17.7	18.4	15.7	13.6	15.1	16.9	16.5	14.2
Celebrations on special occasions such as birthdays, Christmas or other religious festivals	4.1	3.4	3.6	2.9	2.7	3.2	2.9	2.2	2.3
Leisure equipment (for example, sports equipment or a bicycle)	7.6	7.6	7.5	6.9	6.4	7.4	6.4	6.3	6.1
A holiday away from home at least one week a year with his or her family	32.3	35.6	37.4	37.3	38.3	38.0	36.4	34.8	33.9
A hobby or leisure activity	6.9	7.3	7.5	6.2	5.9	6.4	7.5	6.8	6.4
Friends round for tea or a snack once a fortnight	7.8	8.9	8.7	7.3	6.3	6.7	8.5	7.2	7.3
Going on a school trip at least once a term for school-aged children	5.4	5.7	6.4	4.7	5.0	5.1	6.1	5.2	4.5
Play group/nursery/toddler group at least once a week for children of pre-school age	8.3	6.9	6.8	5.3	6.0	5.1	4.3	4.5	3.9

Source: Family Resources Survey 2007/08 to 2014/15.

Table 4            Percentage of adults in families with children lacking necessities in 2007/8 to 2014/15 (weighted by GS_NEWPP)

Item	2007/8	2008/9	2009/10	2010/11	2011/12	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16
Enough money to keep your home in a decent state of repair	18.1	19.1	18.5	18.1	21.4	20.8	20.3	18.6	17.1
A holiday away from home for one week a year, not staying with relatives	36.2	39.1	41.1	42.1	42.8	43.4	42.8	40.9	38.9
Insurance of contents of dwelling	17.8	18.0	19.0	19.2	19.8	21.4	21.5	20.6	20.1
Regular savings (of £10 a month) for rainy days or retirement	38.8	40.7	42.1	41.2	41.1	42.9	40.6	39.0	35.5
Replace any worn out furniture	28.8	32.1	33.7	34.3	34.1	35.5	34.2	31.1	28.6
Replace or repair broken electrical goods such as refrigerator or washing machine	20.4	23.5	23.5	24.9	24.7	25.7	24.5	22.1	20.0
A small amount of money to spend each week on yourself, not on your family	31.5	33.2	34.2	34.2	36.7	38.2	36.8	33.2	29.1

Source: Family Resources Survey 2007/08 to 2014/15.