UNIVERSITY OF YORK
Social Policy Research Unit
26 August 2022
ESTIMATES OF FUEL POVERTY IN JANUARY 2023
Jonathan Bradshaw and Antonia Keung
On 26 August Ofgem announced the level of the gas and electricity
fuel cap in October 2022. They were fairly close to those predicted by Cornwall
Insight on 9 August on which we based our estimates of fuel poverty first
published by the Child poverty Action Group[1]
and subsequently revised[2].
Cornwall Insight[3]
had then predicted that prices would rise by another 20% in January 2023. But
today they have revised that upwards. They are now expecting prices to rise
by 52% to £5387 on average and more by April 2023.
This transforms our estimates of fuel poverty increasing
the proportion of households that will be spending more than 10% (the
conventional measure) of net equivalent income from 66.1% to 78.1% and the
proportion spending more than 20% from 32% to 45.9%.
We now estimate that 91% of pensioner couples and 90% of couples
with 3 children will be spending more that 10% of their net income on fuel.
These estimates take account of the £400 reduction that
is being paid to all electricity customers between October and April next year.
The details are in the tables below.
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Sources: LCFS
2019-20 weighted data. October 2022 price cap (Ofgem published on 26 Aug 22) and January 2023
price cap (Cornwall Insight’s tariff cap forecast 26 August 2022). |
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https://www.cornwall-insight.com/cornwall-insight-comments-on-the-announcement-of-the-october-price-cap/
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Note: the estimates of fuel poverty are based on equivalised
household net income. The Oct and Jan estimates are after applied a
rebate of £15.38 |
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[2] Updated
here https://jonathanbradshaw.blogspot.com/2022/08/estimates-of-fuel-poverty-10-august.html
[3] https://www.cornwall-insight.com/cornwall-insight-comments-on-the-announcement-of-the-october-price-cap/
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