By 2020 £39 billion will have been taken from the social
security budget. Most of this has been taken from the poorest families with
children through the benefit cap, the two child limit, the freezing of family
benefits and limits to rents. Almost all of the savings achieved by cutting
benefits were offset by gains for richer groups.[1] For example, the increases
in the personal tax allowance, which overwhelmingly benefit the better off, cost
£8 billion under the Coalition, and a further £5.5 billion is being spent in
2017-18 paying for the allowance being increased to £11,500 per year and the
higher threshold being raised to £45,000 per year.[2]
Before 2010 most of the indicators of child well-being[3]
had been improving, not least because child poverty had fallen. It took time
for austerity policies to be seen in outcomes for children. Until 2010 their
support was protected by anti-cyclical policies and then the policies were
rolled out slowly. By 2015/16 only about a quarter of the planned cuts had been
implemented. From now they are really beginning to bite. Only 500,000 claimants
are so far on universal credit – by 2022 it will be 7 million
1. Child poverty is increasing
After a period of decline child poverty is now increasing
and is expected to increase sharply by 2020/21 (see Figure 1). All the child
poverty reduction up to and even beyond the financial crisis will have been
whittled away by 2021. Meanwhile
pensioner living standards have been maintained by the triple lock and their
poverty rates have fallen.
2. There has been a big
increase in child homelessness
After 2001 child homelessness had been falling sharply.
Since 2009 it has been rising as has the proportion of homelessness acceptances
involving children (see Figure 2). Much of this increase can be attributed to
austerity[4].
All the signs are that it will continue to increase as local rent limits in the
private and social sector bite and as more people are affected by the delays in
the payment of the housing element of universal credit.[5]
3.
Infant mortality has stopped falling
In 2015 the infant mortality rate increased for the
first time since 1985. It may not be the start of a trend but this increase follows
a long period of decline and the rate has been increasing for the poorest
children since 2010[6].
UK infant mortality rates are already
high compared to other rich EU and other countries and there is evidence that
UK infant mortality has been diverging upwards from the general European
pattern[7]. Child deaths due to modifiable factors also
increased from 2013 to 2017[8].
4. Youth suicides have
stopped falling
The youth suicide rate had also been falling after 1998 especially
for males but it stopped falling in 2007 and may be increasing.
5. The number of
looked after children has been increasing
The number of looked after children in England had plateaued
after 2002 but since 2010 it has been steadily increasing. We can only draw
tentative conclusions about this trend (and indeed all the trends in this
blog). Children come into care for many reasons including parental mental
illness, substance misuse and domestic violence. The trend may be a result of
changes to practice following child protection scandals such as Victoria
Climbie or as a result of recent child migration patterns. But there is also
some evidence of an association between spatial deprivation and children looked
after[9]
and more evidence at an individual level coming from the Born in Bradford
cohort of an association between poverty and becoming looked after[10].
There is also evidence that the increase in looked after children has been much
greater in more disadvantaged areas[11]
6. The subjective
well-being of children is falling
The mean happiness scores of 10-15 year olds has
been falling. This is data from the Understanding Society Youth Panel analysed
for the Good Childhood reports[12].
Understanding Society (US) replaced the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS).
Data from the BHPS survey using the same question showed that mean happiness
scores of 11 to 15 year olds improved significantly from 2001 to 2008[13].
Unfortunately it is not possible to compare BHPS and US results because of a
change in the sampling structure. But it clear from US that there was no
further improvement after 2009 and evidence of a statistically significant decline
after 2011. The decline is more marked for girls than boys and the decline in
happiness with school and with friends is statistically significant.
There is a growing concern with child and
adolescent mental health[14]
and quite a lot of cross sectional evidence[15]
but unfortunately there is as yet no trend data that takes us into the
recession years. Suicide and mental health are clearly linked to
recession[16] and there has been a 68%
increase in the number of girls admitted to hospital for self-harming in the
last decade[17].
7. Obesity admission
increasing
Although there is a good deal of concern over childhood
obesity, obesity and overweight rates have not increased since the recession[18].
However there has been a sharp increase in the hospital admissions of under 16
year olds with obesity as a primary or secondary diagnosis see Figure 7 and
inequalities in obesity rates have been widening [19].
Discussion
Here we have seven child outcomes
which have been moving in the wrong direction since the start of austerity. We
cannot prove that any of the trends is entirely the result of austerity. But it
is surely significant that before the financial crisis all were moving
downwards and now they have either stopped or started moving upwards?
[1]
http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/case/_new/research/Social_Policy_in_a_Cold_Climate/Programme_Reports_and_event_information.asp
[3]
Bradshaw, J. (ed) (2016) The
Well-being of Children in the UK: Fourth Edition, Bristol: Policy Press.
425 pages. http://bit.ly/2dwfS9M
[4]
https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/38/3/417/2239829/The-impact-of-economic-downturns-and-budget-cuts
[7] Wolfe I, Donkin A, Marmot M, Macfarlane A, Cass H,
Viner R. UK child survival in a European context: recommendations for a
national Countdown Collaboration Archives
of disease in childhood 2015.
[9]
Bywaters, P. (2013) Inequalities in child welfare: Towards a new policy,
research and action agenda, British
Journal of Social Work advanced
access 1-18
[11]
http://www.communitycare.co.uk/2017/02/28/children-poorest-areas-likely-enter-care-finds-study/
[12]
https://www.childrenssociety.org.uk/sites/default/files/the-good-childhood-report-2017_full-report_0.pdf
[13]
Bradshaw, J. and Keung, L. (2011) ‘Trends in child subjective wellbeing in the
UK’, Journal of Children’s Services, vol 6, no 1, pp 4-17.
[14]
Royal College of Nursing (2017) Child
and adolescent mental health: key facts
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/blog/2017/01/conundrum-children-young-people-health
[17]
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/23/stress-anxiety-fuel-mental-health-crisis-girls-young-women
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the passion and thoroughness you present this evidence with. After years of lived experience as lone parent on a low income, suffering under the cosh of austerity, I share your aim to illuminate beyond denial the damage from austerity and the Neo Liberal economy used to support it's authenticity. In Scotland we at least have some mitigating policies, but even then our future is uncertain. Your blog is inspiring! Jill Marchbank (SPIRU, GCU).
ReplyDelete