ESTIMATES OF FUEL POVERTY IN JANUARY 2023

 

UNIVERSITY OF YORK

Social Policy Research Unit

 

26 August 2022

 

ESTIMATES OF FUEL POVERTY IN JANUARY 2023

 

Jonathan Bradshaw and Antonia Keung

 

On 26 August Ofgem announced the level of the gas and electricity fuel cap in October 2022. They were fairly close to those predicted by Cornwall Insight on 9 August on which we based our estimates of fuel poverty first published by the Child poverty Action Group[1] and subsequently revised[2].  Cornwall Insight[3] had then predicted that prices would rise by another 20% in January 2023. But today they have revised that upwards. They are now expecting prices to rise by 52% to £5387 on average and more by April 2023.

 

This transforms our estimates of fuel poverty increasing the proportion of households that will be spending more than 10% (the conventional measure) of net equivalent income from 66.1% to 78.1% and the proportion spending more than 20% from 32% to 45.9%.

 

We now estimate that 91% of pensioner couples and 90% of couples with 3 children will be spending more that 10% of their net income on fuel.

 

These estimates take account of the £400 reduction that is being paid to all electricity customers between October and April next year.

 

The details are in the tables below.

 

Sources: LCFS 2019-20 weighted data. October 2022 price cap (Ofgem published on 26 Aug 22) and January 2023 price cap (Cornwall Insight’s tariff cap forecast 26 August 2022).
https://www.cornwall-insight.com/cornwall-insight-comments-on-the-announcement-of-the-october-price-cap/
Note: the estimates of fuel poverty are  based on equivalised household net income. The Oct and Jan estimates are after applied a rebate of £15.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[1] https://cpag.org.uk/news-blogs/news-listings/fuel-poverty-estimates-uk

 

[2] Updated here https://jonathanbradshaw.blogspot.com/2022/08/estimates-of-fuel-poverty-10-august.html

 

[3] https://www.cornwall-insight.com/cornwall-insight-comments-on-the-announcement-of-the-october-price-cap/

 

REVISED ESTIMATES OF FUEL POVERTY 10 AUGUST 2022

 REVISED ESTIMATES OF FUEL POVERTY 10 AUGUST 2022

		Actual 2019/20	May 2022	Oct 2022	Jan 2023
Average weekly fuel expenditure
Mean £		24.75	38.12	53.62	66.72
Median £		21.39	32.94	44.24	55.57
% UK household in fuel poverty on different measures
	> 10% net income	19.2%	38.5%	54.4%	65.8%
	> 20% net income	5.2%	11.8%	22.4%	31.7%
	> 25% net income	3.6%	7.8%	15.3%	21.9%
	> 30% net income	2.3%	5.5%	11.5%	16.1%
Average weekly fuel poverty gap on different measures
	> 10% net income
	Mean £	15.15	21.92	37.16	45.56
	Median £	9.39	14.08	24.46	31.68
	> 20% net income
	Mean £	18.18	24.99	40.16	45.33
	Median £	11.61	15.79	24.87	27.32
	> 25% net income
	Mean £	17.76	26.58	43.24	48.55
	Median £	9.42	16.41	25.84	30.08
	> 30% net income
	Mean £	20.02	27.46	44.17	51.25
	Median £	12.11	16.46	26.32	30.74
Number of households living in fuel poverty on different measures
	> 10% net income	5,245,000	10,528,000	14,889,000	18,001,000
	> 20% net income	1,415,000	3,220,000	6,130,000	8,661,000
	> 25% net income	976,000	2,126,000	4,190,000	6,001,000
	> 30% net income	621,000	1,509,000	3,145,000	4,401,000
Number of people in fuel poverty on different measures
	> 10% net income	13,763,000	27,170,000	38,660,000	45,943,000
	> 20% net income	3,657,000	8,542,000	16,501,000	22,896,000
	> 25% net income	2,428,000	5,517,000	11,483,000	16,102,000
	> 30% net income	1,475,000	3,947,000	8,645,000	11,955,000
Sources: LCFS 2019-20 weighted data. October 22 and January 23 averages are based on Conrwall Insight’s tariff cap forecast published on 9 August 2022.

 

Household fuel poverty status by region
		Fuel poverty threholds
		10%	20%	25%	30%
North East	Count	798	363	243	195
	% within region	67.30%	30.60%	20.50%	16.40%
North West & Merseyside	Count	2180	1048	715	526
	% within region	68.60%	33.00%	22.50%	16.50%
Yorkshire and the Humber	Count	1660	746	466	333
	% within region	70.60%	31.70%	19.80%	14.20%
East Midlands	Count	1327	675	477	358
	% within region	66.50%	33.80%	23.90%	17.90%
West Midlands	Count	1697	784	513	404
	% within region	70.90%	32.70%	21.40%	16.90%
Eastern	Count	1640	709	423	248
	% within region	64.70%	28.00%	16.70%	9.80%
London	Count	1795	909	609	494
	% within region	56.40%	28.60%	19.10%	15.50%
South East	Count	2110	900	641	444
	% within region	57.90%	24.70%	17.60%	12.20%
South West	Count	1531	732	550	345
	% within region	65.00%	31.00%	23.30%	14.60%
Wales	Count	938	472	353	253
	% within region	68.70%	34.60%	25.90%	18.50%
Scotland	Count	1738	927	687	535
	% within region	72.80%	38.80%	28.80%	22.40%
Northern Ireland	Count	587	395	323	266
	% within region	76.30%	51.40%	42.00%	34.60%
Total	Count	18001	8660	6000	4401
	% within region	65.80%	31.70%	21.90%	16.10%

 

	% Fuel poor but not income poor	% Fuel poor and income poor	% Fuel poor
2019/20 (10% definition)	9.5	60.2	19.2
Jan 2023 (10% definition)	60.7	87.6	65.8
Jan 2023 (20% definition)	22.8	69.0	31.7
Jan 2023 (25% definition)	13.4	58.1	21.9
Jan 2023 (30% definition)	8.3	48.9	16.1

 

 

Household fuel poverty status in Jan 2023 after 19% increase in energy price and after weekly rebate of £15.38 applied Crosstabulation
			fuel poverty threholds
			10%	20%	25%	30%
Family Type	1 Single	Count	3740	1756	1159	861
		% within Family Type	54.70%	25.70%	16.90%	12.60%
	2 Couple	Count	5266	2199	1439	987
		% within Family Type	59.20%	24.70%	16.20%	11.10%
	3 Couple with 1 child	Count	1466	658	438	308
		% within Family Type	67.10%	30.10%	20.00%	14.10%
	4 Couple with 2 children	Count	1958	836	514	374
		% within Family Type	77.40%	33.00%	20.30%	14.80%
	5 Couple with 3 children	Count	666	439	321	233
		% within Family Type	84.80%	55.90%	40.90%	29.60%
	6 Couple with 4 or more children	Count	166	119	105	84
		% within Family Type	94.90%	68.00%	60.00%	48.00%
	7 Lone parent with 1 child	Count	436	236	211	172
		% within Family Type	71.40%	38.60%	34.50%	28.10%
	8 Lone parent with 2 or more children	Count	483	375	314	261
		% within Family Type	90.40%	70.20%	58.80%	48.90%
	9 Pensioner single	Count	583	338	296	211
		% within Family Type	74.80%	43.40%	38.00%	27.10%
	10 Pensioner couple	Count	407	272	201	166
		% within Family Type	86.40%	57.60%	42.60%	35.20%
	11 Multi-unit	Count	2829	1435	1003	744
		% within Family Type	80.10%	40.60%	28.40%	21.10%
Total		Count	18000	8663	6001	4401
		% within Family Type	65.80%	31.70%	21.90%	16.10%